Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda Governments Engaged In Massive Corruption Costing Africa Billions Of Revenue Loss

UGANDA 2

Top row: From left John Dramani Mahama of Ghana, Uhuru Kenyatta of Kenya and Armado Guebuzza of Mozambique. Underneath: President Takaya Kikwete of Tanzania and Yoweri Museveni of Uganda.

Hiding In Plain Sight: Trade Misinvoicing And The Impact Of Revenue Loss In Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: 2002-2011

By Christine Clough, Dev Kar, Brian LeBlanc, Raymond Baker, Joshua Simmons,

A case study on the impact of trade misinvoicing in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda—titled “Hiding in Plain Sight: Trade Misinvoicing and the Impact of Revenue Loss in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda: 2002-2011”—found that the fraudulent over- and under-invoicing of trade is hampering economic growth and costing these developing governments billions of U.S. dollars in lost revenue.

Primary Findings

Between 2002 and 2011, US$60.8 billion moved illegally into or out of Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda using trade misinvoicing: Gross Illicit Flows from Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda, 2002-2011, millions of USD | No data from Mozambique and Kenya for 2011.

The report is only the second by GFI to use our new methodology to estimate tax revenue loss from trade misinvoicing.  The study finds that the potential average annual tax loss from trade misinvoicing amounted to roughly 12.7% of Uganda’s total government revenue over the years 2002-2011, followed by Ghana (11.0%), Mozambique (10.4%), Kenya (8.3%), and Tanzania (7.4%

Methodology

GFI Chief Economist Dev Kar and GFI Junior Economist Brian LeBlanc developed robust economic models that highlight the drivers and dynamics of illicit flows in both directions for each of the five countries analyzed. Nevertheless, GFI cautioned that their methodology is very conservative and that there are likely to be more illicit flows into and out of these countries that are not captured by the models. GFI notes that—due to data issues, varying customs rates by commodity and sector, and various other factors—it is difficult to assess the true tax revenue loss stemming from trade misinvoicing in a particular country. The tax loss figures presented in this study are rough estimates of the possible impact that trade misinvoicing could have on government revenues in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda.

Country-Specific Findings

Ghana Kenya Mozambique Tanzania Uganda
Ghana Kenya Mozambique Tanzania Uganda
Cumulative Trade Misinvoicing Outflows US$7.32bn US$9.64bn US$2.33bn US$8.28bn US$8.39bn
Cumulative Trade Misinvoicing Inflows US$7.07bn US$3.94bn US$2.93bn US$10.44bn US$457mn
Gross Cumulative Trade Misinvoicing Inflows + Outflows US$14.39bn US$13.58bn US$5.27bn US$18.73bn US$8.84bn
Gross Annual Trade Misinvoicing as % of GDP 6.64% 7.76% 8.98% 9.36% 7.05%
Gross Annual Trade Misinvoicing as % of ODA 189.17% 288.63% 49.51% 131.21% 97.94%
Cumulative Outflows via Export Under-Invoicing US$5.1bn US$9.26bn US$1.26bn 0 US$261mn
Cumulative Outflows via Import Over-Invoicing US$2.21bn US$377mn US$1.08bn US$8.28bn US$8.13bn
Primary Method for Shifting Money Illicitly out of Country Export Under-Invoicing Export Under-Invoicing Both Export Under-Invoicing & Import Over-Invoicing Import Over-Invoicing Import Over-Invoicing
Cumulative Inflows via Import Under-Invoicing US$4.6bn US$3.94bn US$2.22bn US$108mn 0
Cumulative Inflows via Export Over-Invoicing US$2.43bn 0 US$711mn US$10.34bn US$457mn
Primary Method for Shifting Money Illicitly into Country Import Under-Invoicing Import Under-Invoicing Import Under-Invoicing Export Over-Invoicing Export Over-Invoicing
Cumulative Tax Revenue Loss via Trade Misinvoicing ^1 US$3.86bn US$3.92bn US$1.68bn US$2.48bn US$2.43bn
Average Annual Tax Revenue Loss via Trade Misinvoicing ^1 US$386mn US$435mn US$187mn US$248mn US$243mn
Tax Revenue Loss via Trade Misinvoicing as % of Total Government Revenue ^1 11.0% 8.3% 10.4% 7.4% 12.7%

FOOTNOTES

  1. GFI notes that—due to data issues, varying customs rates by commodity and sector, and various other factors—it is difficult to assess the true tax revenue loss stemming from trade misinvoicing in a particular country.  The tax loss figures presented in this study are rough estimates of the possible impact that trade misinvoicing could have on government revenues in Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda.
  2. All monetary values are expressed in U.S. dollars (USD).

Some of the graphs didn’t appear at this website, thus; beneath is the link to the original article: http://www.gfintegrity.org/report/report-trade-misinvoicing-in-ghana-kenya-mozambique-tanzania-and-uganda/

Advertisements

3 thoughts on “Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Tanzania, and Uganda Governments Engaged In Massive Corruption Costing Africa Billions Of Revenue Loss

Comments are closed.